Message-ID: <10202458.1075839995300.JavaMail.evans@thyme>
Date: Mon, 29 Oct 2001 20:12:01 -0800 (PST)
From: bill.williams@enron.com
To: john.anderson@enron.com, todd.bland@enron.com, craig.dean@enron.com, 
	mark.guzman@enron.com, leaf.harasin@enron.com, eric.linder@enron.com, 
	steven.merriss@enron.com, bert.meyers@enron.com, 
	michael.mier@enron.com, v..porter@enron.com, darin.presto@enron.com, 
	ryan.slinger@enron.com, geir.solberg@enron.com, kate.symes@enron.com, 
	bill.williams@enron.com
Subject: Evening Peak and MEETING NEXT TUESDAY at 4:30.
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X-From: Williams III, Bill </O=ENRON/OU=NA/CN=RECIPIENTS/CN=BWILLIA5>
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Group-
Brace yourselves...
Once more we are experiencing seasonal changes. The time zone change has pu=
shed the evening peak back to HE 18 through HE 19. These hours are now prem=
ium, the load curve no longer resembles a rolling hill but has an extreme m=
orning ramp and an extreme evening ramp. Both EPE and the CAISO in NP-15 wi=
ll have difficulty with this evening ramp. Do not count on the EPE load for=
ecast to accurately identify the evening ramp. We should not suck off the g=
rid. Pay the extra $3 for firm or unit contingent power in the SW. We need =
to attack the evening peak early and make sure we cover it. We should be us=
ing congestion wheels as hedges. A 200 mw import requires a 200 mw wheel go=
ing in the opposite direction at $0.10--or less--we should not do 50 mws at=
 $50 as we would still have to pay $50 on the other 150 mws if we get award=
ed all 50 mws of relief. We will discuss this in our meeting next Tuesday N=
ovember 6th at 4:30. Let's be sharp and not give away hard-earned revenue o=
n congestion mis-management or poor scheduling.=20

Any questions? Comments? Ideas? Bring them to the meeting on next Tuesday.

Thanks,

Bill